Illustrative data (not official statistics). Percentage of children receiving the first dose of MMR vaccine by age 2 in a region: 2014: 93% 2016: 92% 2018: 91% 2020: 90% 2022: 89% 2024: 89%
The World Health Organization recommends 95% coverage to prevent measles outbreaks. In the same period, the number of measles cases in the region rose from 12 to 85. You have 6 minutes.
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Reading data accurately, quantifying trends, generating explanations and recognising limitations — including correlation vs causation.
A structure to build your own answer on — not a script.
Describe
What is measured, where, over what time; note illustrative data.
Quantify
Uptake fell 4 percentage points (93% → 89%), plateauing 2022–24; consistently below 95%. Cases rose from 12 to 85 (about sevenfold).
Explain
Hesitancy/misinformation; access (GP appointments, pandemic disruption, deprivation); recording issues. Measles is highly contagious so small falls matter.
Caveat
Association not causation; case numbers depend on imported cases and testing; regional averages hide local pockets; percentage points vs percent.
Implications
Targeted outreach, reminders, trusted messengers, catch-up clinics.
A strong but not perfect answer. Read the notes to see why it works — then make your own version with your experiences.
This shows the percentage of children who'd had their first MMR dose by age two in one region, from 2014 to 2024 — and I note it's illustrative data1.
Uptake fell steadily from 93% to 89% between 2014 and 2022, then levelled off. That's a drop of four percentage points2, and it's been below the WHO's 95% target throughout. Over the same period, measles cases rose from 12 to 85 — roughly a sevenfold increase.
The trends fit together biologically: measles is extremely contagious, so even a few percentage points below 95% can leave enough susceptible children for outbreaks to spread. Possible reasons for the fall include vaccine hesitancy and misinformation, difficulties getting GP appointments, disruption during the pandemic around 2020, and lower uptake in more deprived communities.
But I'd be careful not to say this proves3 one caused the other. The number of cases also depends on things like travellers bringing measles in, and on how much testing was done. And a regional average of 89% could hide some neighbourhoods4 at 95% and others at 70% — outbreaks tend to happen in those pockets. I'd want local breakdowns, data on the ages of cases and whether they were vaccinated, and ideally surveys on why parents didn't vaccinate.
If I were advising, I'd target the areas with the lowest uptake — with reminders, catch-up clinics at convenient times, and trusted community members helping explain the vaccine.
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